Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 18.5 in October 2025, versus 30.0 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 257 data points in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The time period covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -23.6 in March 2020; it recorded its highest level of 71.2 in September 2004; it averaged 34.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 37.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 30.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 18.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |