Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 28.4 in January 2026, versus 33.2 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 260 records in the monthly time series displayed in the plot above. The period covered by the series extends from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a maximum of 70.9 in July 2004; it reached a minimum of -23.2 in March 2020; it was equal on average to 34.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 26.4 |
| 2025-12-31 | 33.2 |
| 2026-01-31 | 28.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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