Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 30.3 in July 2026, compared to 35.1 in June.
Sample. There are 266 data points in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the span of time going from June 2004 to July 2026.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -23.2 in March 2020; it attained a maximum of 70.9 in July 2004; it was equal on average to 34.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 33.7 |
| 2026-06-30 | 35.1 |
| 2026-07-31 | 30.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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