Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 33.7 in November 2025, compared to 21.0 in October 2025.
Sample. In the monthly series presented in the figure, there are 258 data points overall. The series covers the time range stretching from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 36.1; it reached a minimum of -18.6 in March 2020; it reached its maximum of 73.3 in September 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 31.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | 21.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 33.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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