Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 21.0 in October 2025, compared to 31.6 in September.
Sample. The monthly time series presented in the plot has 257 data points overall. The time period covered by the series goes from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Check out some statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index peaked at 73.3 in September 2004; it hit a minimum of -18.6 in March 2020; it had an average value of 36.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 40.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.6 |
| 2025-10-31 | 21.0 |
Heads-up. One of the pluses of our data visualization and download service is that we publish rich metadata. Check it below to gain insights on the characteristics of the series that you analyze.
Not for investment purposes. Data and any other information hosted on FetchSeries are not meant for investment purposes or as a basis for financial-decision making. Users should consult professional advice and perform independent analysis before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |