Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 29.2 in January 2026, versus 32.9 in December 2025.
Sample. In the monthly time series shown in the plot, there are 260 records. The period covered by the series goes from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -18.6 in March 2020; it recorded its maximum of 73.1 in September 2004; it had an average value of 36.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 32.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 32.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 29.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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