Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 34.3 in February 2026, compared to 29.2 in January 2026.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 261 records. The series covers the span of time extending from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Take a look at a few summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 36.0; it achieved a maximum of 73.1 in September 2004; it recorded a minimum of -18.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 32.9 |
| 2026-01-31 | 29.2 |
| 2026-02-28 | 34.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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