Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 34.6 in July 2026, compared to 34.8 in June.
Sample. There are 266 records overall in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The series covers the period extending from June 2004 to July 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 73.1 in September 2004; it reached a minimum of -18.6 in March 2020; it was equal on average to 36.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 36.8 |
| 2026-06-30 | 34.8 |
| 2026-07-31 | 34.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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