Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 36.8 in May 2026, versus 34.6 in April.
Sample. In the monthly series plotted above, there are a total of 264 observations. The time span covered by the series goes from June 2004 to May 2026.
History. Have a look at some descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -18.6 in March 2020; it reached a maximum of 73.1 in September 2004; it was equal on average to 36.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 35.7 |
| 2026-04-30 | 34.6 |
| 2026-05-31 | 36.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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