Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 25.0 in February 2026, versus 32.0 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 261 observations overall. The series covers the time range extending from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 33.4; it hit a maximum of 68.0 in November 2004; it reached its minimum of -20.9 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 29.6 |
| 2026-01-31 | 32.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 25.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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