Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 18.3 in October 2025, compared to 34.3 in September.
Sample. There are 257 data points in the monthly series presented in the plot above. The time range covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of some descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index attained a maximum of 68.6 in November 2004; it hit a trough of -21.2 in March 2020; it had a mean of 33.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 36.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 34.3 |
| 2025-10-31 | 18.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |