Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 29.2 in July 2026, versus 35.5 in June 2026.
Sample. There are 266 records overall in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The period covered by the series is from June 2004 to July 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 33.4; it recorded a minimum of -20.9 in March 2020; it recorded a maximum of 68.0 in November 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 28.6 |
| 2026-06-30 | 35.5 |
| 2026-07-31 | 29.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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