Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 18.9 in February 2026, compared to 24.3 in January 2026.
Sample. There are 260 records overall in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The time range covered by the series extends from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -47.0 in November 2008; it reached its maximum of 55.2 in December 2004; it had a mean of 12.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 15.7 |
| 2026-01-31 | 24.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | 18.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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