Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 3.0 in October 2025, compared to 3.2 in September.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are a total of 256 records. The span of time covered by the series extends from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Have a look at a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -47.0 in November 2008; it recorded its highest level of 55.2 in December 2004; it was equal on average to 12.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 17.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.2 |
| 2025-10-31 | 3.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |