Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 12.5 in November 2025, compared to 3.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 257 records in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The time span covered by the series goes from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Here are a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 12.1; it reached a trough of -47.0 in November 2008; it reached its maximum of 55.2 in December 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 3.2 |
| 2025-10-31 | 3.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 12.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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