Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 12.7 in February 2026, compared to 16.6 in January 2026.
Sample. This monthly time series has 261 data points. The period covered by the series extends from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 12.3; it recorded a minimum of -48.1 in November 2008; it peaked at 54.1 in August 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 11.1 |
| 2026-01-31 | 16.6 |
| 2026-02-28 | 12.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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