Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 11.0 in November 2025, compared to 7.0 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 258 records in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The series covers the period going from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 55.1 in August 2004; it reached a minimum of -47.6 in November 2008; it had an average value of 12.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 8.4 |
| 2025-10-31 | 7.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 11.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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