Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 14.3 in May 2026, versus 14.1 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 264 observations in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The time range covered by the series goes from June 2004 to May 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -48.1 in November 2008; it recorded a maximum of 54.1 in August 2004; it was equal on average to 12.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 10.6 |
| 2026-04-30 | 14.1 |
| 2026-05-31 | 14.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.