Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 40.3 in November 2025, compared to 14.7 in October 2025.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 257 records in total. The time range covered by the series extends from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Check out a few statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -19.6 in March 2020; it attained a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it had an average value of 33.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 30.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 14.7 |
| 2025-11-30 | 40.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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