Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 32.9 in February 2026, versus 37.4 in January 2026.
Sample. There are 260 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The series covers the span of time extending from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it registered a minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it had a mean value of 33.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 38.5 |
| 2026-01-31 | 37.4 |
| 2026-02-28 | 32.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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