Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 31.0 in May 2026, versus 36.5 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 263 records in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the period stretching from June 2004 to May 2026.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 34.3; it reached its minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it attained a maximum of 68.8 in February 2006.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 32.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 36.5 |
| 2026-05-31 | 31.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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