Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 14.7 in October 2025, compared to 25.0 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 256 data points overall in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the time period stretching from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it reached its maximum of 68.8 in February 2006; it was equal on average to 34.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 30.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 25.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 14.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |