Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 28.4 in November 2025, compared to 14.7 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 257 observations in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The span of time covered by the series extends from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Have a look at a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 68.8 in February 2006; it reached a minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it had a mean value of 34.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 25.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 14.7 |
| 2025-11-30 | 28.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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