Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 24.6 in July 2026, compared to 27.4 in June 2026.
Sample. There are 265 data points in the monthly time series shown in the chart above. The series covers the time range stretching from June 2004 to July 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it achieved a maximum of 68.8 in February 2006; it had a mean of 34.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 31.0 |
| 2026-06-30 | 27.4 |
| 2026-07-31 | 24.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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