Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 41.1 in February 2026, versus 35.1 in January.
Sample. There are 260 observations in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The series covers the period stretching from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Check out some summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it reached its highest level of 68.8 in February 2006; it had a mean value of 34.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 40.8 |
| 2026-01-31 | 35.1 |
| 2026-02-28 | 41.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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