Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 35.1 in January 2026, versus 40.8 in December 2025.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are a total of 259 observations. The period covered by the series extends from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -19.6 in March 2020; it reached a maximum of 68.8 in February 2006; it was equal on average to 34.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 28.4 |
| 2025-12-31 | 40.8 |
| 2026-01-31 | 35.1 |
Tip. One of the pros of our data visualization and download service is that we provide accurate metadata. Find it below to delve deeper into the characteristics of the indicators that you are exploring.
Not for investment purposes. Any financial data disseminated on FetchSeries are not meant for investment purposes or as a basis for financial-decision making. Users should obtain expert advice and do their own independent due diligence before pledging money to any investment.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.