Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Company outlook: Future (improvement vs worsening; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for company outlook (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share reporting a worsening) was 4.5 in October 2025, compared to 6.1 in September 2025.
Sample. There are 256 observations overall in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The span of time covered by the series extends from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 62.8 in November 2004; it recorded a bottom of -38.6 in April 2020; it had a mean of 18.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 21.1 |
| 2025-09-30 | 6.1 |
| 2025-10-31 | 4.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the outlook of your company improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |