Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 24.9 in January 2026, compared to 24.1 in December 2025.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the chart has a total of 260 data points. The time range covered by the series is from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at some descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 54.8 in September 2004; it reached a trough of -21.4 in March 2020; it had an average value of 24.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 26.9 |
| 2025-12-31 | 24.1 |
| 2026-01-31 | 24.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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