Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 14.5 in February 2026, compared to 24.9 in January 2026.
Sample. This monthly series has a total of 261 observations. The span of time covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 54.8 in September 2004; it reached a trough of -21.4 in March 2020; it had a mean of 24.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 24.1 |
| 2026-01-31 | 24.9 |
| 2026-02-28 | 14.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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