Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 27.8 in November 2025, versus 8.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 258 observations in the monthly series presented in the figure above. The time period covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 55.5 in September 2004; it reached its minimum of -21.6 in March 2020; it had a mean of 24.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 32.7 |
| 2025-10-31 | 8.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 27.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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