Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 8.2 in October 2025, versus 32.7 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 257 records in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The time period covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to October 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 24.8; it reached a trough of -21.6 in March 2020; it reached a maximum of 55.5 in September 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 28.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 32.7 |
| 2025-10-31 | 8.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |