Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 24.6 in July 2026, versus 28.3 in June 2026.
Sample. There are 266 data points in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The span of time covered by the series is from June 2004 to July 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 24.6; it reached a trough of -21.4 in March 2020; it hit a maximum of 54.8 in September 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 12.9 |
| 2026-06-30 | 28.3 |
| 2026-07-31 | 24.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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