Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 33.4 in August 2026, compared to 27.8 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 266 data points in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The span of time covered by the series goes from June 2004 to August 2026.
History. Here are some summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a trough of -15.6 in March 2020; it achieved a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it was equal on average to 35.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 27.8 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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