Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 35.8 in November 2025, compared to 16.2 in October.
Sample. There are 257 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The series covers the time period going from June 2004 to November 2025.
History. Here are a few statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its highest level of 70.0 in November 2004; it recorded a bottom of -15.6 in March 2020; it had an average value of 35.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 25.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 16.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 35.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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