Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 36.4 in January 2026, compared to 40.8 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 259 observations in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The series covers the period stretching from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Have a look at some statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.9; it reached a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it reached its minimum of -15.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 35.8 |
| 2025-12-31 | 40.8 |
| 2026-01-31 | 36.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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