Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 36.5 in April 2026, compared to 38.7 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 262 records overall. The time range covered by the series goes from June 2004 to April 2026.
History. Here are a few summary statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -15.6 in March 2020; it hit a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it had a mean value of 35.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 43.8 |
| 2026-03-31 | 38.7 |
| 2026-04-30 | 36.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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