Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 36.1 in October 2026, compared to 35.1 in September 2026.
Sample. There are 269 records in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the period extending from June 2004 to October 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index averaged 35.9; it attained a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it reached a trough of -15.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 33.4000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 35.1000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 36.1000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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