Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 33.8 in May 2026, compared to 36.5 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 263 data points in total. The span of time covered by the series goes from June 2004 to May 2026.
History. Check out some simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it reached its minimum of -15.6 in March 2020; it had a mean of 35.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 38.7 |
| 2026-04-30 | 36.5 |
| 2026-05-31 | 33.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.