Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 27.8 in July 2026, versus 29.0 in June 2026.
Sample. There are 265 records in the monthly series presented in the chart above. The series covers the time span stretching from June 2004 to July 2026.
History. Here are a few summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 35.9; it registered a minimum of -15.6 in March 2020; it attained a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 33.8 |
| 2026-06-30 | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 27.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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