Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 43.8 in February 2026, compared to 36.4 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 260 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The series covers the span of time going from June 2004 to February 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 35.9; it attained a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it hit a minimum of -15.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 40.8 |
| 2026-01-31 | 36.4 |
| 2026-02-28 | 43.8 |
Heads-up. An advantage of using our web site is that we give you accurate metadata. Find it below to delve deeper into the characteristics of the indicators that you use in your work.
Not for investment purposes. Any data made available on this web site are not intended for investment purposes or as a basis for financial-decision making. Users should seek expert advice and perform independent analysis before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.