Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 18.1 in January 2026, compared to 21.1 in December 2025.
Sample. In the monthly time series presented in the figure, there are 260 observations overall. The series covers the period stretching from June 2004 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index peaked at 52.1 in January 2022; it reached a trough of -28.9 in January 2009; it was equal on average to 22.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 22.8 |
| 2025-12-31 | 21.1 |
| 2026-01-31 | 18.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.