Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 7.9 in October 2026, compared to 11.3 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 106 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The series covers the time span stretching from January 2018 to October 2026.
History. Have a look at some descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018; it hit a peak of 62.6 in March 2020; it had an average value of 16.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 8.70000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 11.3000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 7.90000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.