Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 8.7 in August 2026, compared to 6.4 in July.
Sample. There are 104 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The time range covered by the series goes from January 2018 to August 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 16.7; it reached its lowest level of -8.3 in January 2018; it reached its highest level of 62.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 10.9 |
| 2026-07-31 | 6.4 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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