Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 15.7 in November 2025, versus 22.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 95 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The period covered by the series is from January 2018 to November 2025.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -8.3 in January 2018; it hit a maximum of 62.6 in March 2020; it had a mean of 17.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 13.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 22.2 |
| 2025-11-30 | 15.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.