Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 4.8 in January 2026, compared to 0.0 in December 2025.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 97 records in total. The time span covered by the series goes from January 2018 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 16.9; it reached a trough of -8.3 in January 2018; it hit a maximum of 62.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 15.7 |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 4.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.