Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 19.2 in May 2026, compared to 17.9 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly series presented in the figure has 101 data points overall. The series covers the time range extending from January 2018 to May 2026.
History. Have a look at some statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018; it peaked at 62.6 in March 2020; it was equal on average to 16.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 26.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.9 |
| 2026-05-31 | 19.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.