Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 22.2 in October 2025, compared to 13.9 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 94 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The series covers the time range extending from January 2018 to October 2025.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 62.6 in March 2020; it reached a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018; it had an average value of 17.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | 18.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 13.9 |
| 2025-10-31 | 22.2 |
Hint. To simplify complex analyses, we organize indicators into data sets and worksheets. If you navigate further down, you will discover how we arranged further material linked to the statistics published here.
Not for investment purposes. Any data accessible on FetchSeries are not suitable for investment purposes or as a basis for financial-decision making. Users should seek professional advice and do independent analysis before pledging money to any investment.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |