Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 52.0 in October 2026, compared to 50.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 354 data points overall in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the span of time going from May 1997 to October 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 37.4; it reached a trough of -2.0 in April 2020; it attained a maximum of 81.0 in December 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 39.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 52.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will wages increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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