Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Vendor lead times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for vendor lead times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 5.0 in January 2026, versus 11.0 in December 2025.
Sample. This monthly time series has 347 records. The time period covered by the series is from January 1997 to January 2026.
History. Here are some summary statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 5.4; it reached its maximum of 41.0 in May 2021; it reached its lowest level of -27.0 in August 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 8.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 11.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 5.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will vendor lead times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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