Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Vendor lead times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for vendor lead times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 10.0 in August 2026, compared to 12.0 in July.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 354 observations overall. The series covers the time span extending from January 1997 to August 2026.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 5.4; it recorded a minimum of -27.0 in August 2022; it achieved a maximum of 41.0 in May 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 12.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 10.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will vendor lead times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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