Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Vendor lead times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in the Fifth District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for vendor lead times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -1.0 in February 2026, versus 5.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 348 records in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The span of time covered by the series stretches from January 1997 to February 2026.
History. Here are a few statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 5.3; it recorded its maximum of 41.0 in May 2021; it recorded a bottom of -27.0 in August 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 11.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 5.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | -1.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will vendor lead times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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