Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) stood at -1.0 in September 2025, compared to -10.0 in August.
Sample. There are 136 data points in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The time range covered by the series is from February 2010 to September 2025.
History. Here are some summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 21.2; it hit a peak of 54.0 in June 2020; it reached a trough of -34.0 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | -2.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | -10.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | -1.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |