Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) was 3.0 in April 2026, compared to 16.0 in March 2026.
Sample. The monthly series presented in the figure has a total of 186 observations. The period covered by the series extends from February 2010 to April 2026.
History. Here are some statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 21.4; it registered a minimum of -34.0 in April 2020; it recorded its maximum of 54.0 in June 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 22.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 16.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 3.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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