Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) stood at 16.0 in August 2026, compared to 19.0 in July.
Sample. This monthly time series has 190 records overall. The time period covered by the series extends from February 2010 to August 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -35.0 in April 2020; it peaked at 54.0 in June 2020; it was equal on average to 21.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 19.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 16.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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