Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) stood at -1.0 in November 2025, compared to -10.0 in October.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the plot has a total of 181 records. The span of time covered by the series extends from February 2010 to November 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 21.5; it recorded a bottom of -35.0 in October 2022; it reached its highest level of 54.0 in February 2011.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | -4.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | -10.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | -1.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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