Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) stood at 28.0 in February 2026, versus 21.0 in January.
Sample. There are 184 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The series covers the span of time extending from February 2010 to February 2026.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -35.0 in October 2022; it achieved a maximum of 54.0 in February 2011; it had an average value of 21.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 15.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 21.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 28.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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