Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at -5.0 in September 2025, compared to 7.0 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 290 data points in the monthly series presented in the chart above. The series covers the time range extending from January 1993 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at some simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 65.0 in March 2018; it registered a minimum of -11.0 in April 2025; it had a mean of 29.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 7.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 7.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | -5.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |