Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 36.0 in May 2026, compared to 24.0 in April.
Sample. There are 393 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The time period covered by the series goes from January 1993 to May 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 31.0; it reached its maximum of 65.0 in March 2018; it recorded a bottom of -11.0 in April 2025.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 31.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 24.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 36.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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