Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 37.0 in January 2026, versus 28.0 in December 2025.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 389 data points overall. The series covers the span of time stretching from January 1993 to January 2026.
History. Have a look at a few statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 30.9; it recorded its maximum of 65.0 in March 2018; it reached its lowest level of -11.0 in April 2025.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 19.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 28.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 37.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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