Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 13.0 in October 2026, compared to 26.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 396 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The series covers the time range stretching from November 1993 to October 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -11.0 in April 2025; it peaked at 65.0 in March 2018; it was equal on average to 30.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 21.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 26.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 13.0000 |
Hint. Our metadata often include references to the sources of the time-series data shown on FetchSeries. You can use these references to find more details.
Not for investment purposes. Financial data shared on this web site are not not supposed to be used for investment purposes or other financial decisions. Users should seek professional advice and perform their own independent due diligence before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.