Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 24.0 in April 2026, versus 31.0 in March.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 392 records overall. The series covers the span of time extending from January 1993 to April 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 65.0 in March 2018; it hit a minimum of -11.0 in April 2025; it was equal on average to 30.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 36.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 31.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 24.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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