Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Inventories of raw materials: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories of raw materials (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.0 in August 2026, compared to 2.0 in July 2026.
Sample. There are 354 data points in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time range going from January 1997 to August 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -27.0 in June 2000; it reached its highest level of 16.0 in November 2025; it had an average value of -2.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 3.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 4.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will raw materials inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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