Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at -8.0 in November 2025, compared to 1.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 345 records overall in the monthly series displayed in the plot above. The series covers the time range extending from January 1997 to November 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some simple statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 42.0 in May 2021; it reached a trough of -31.0 in November 2008; it averaged 14.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | -11.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 1.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | -8.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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