Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in the Fifth District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 1.0 in February 2026, versus -4.0 in January 2026.
Sample. This monthly time series has a total of 348 observations. The series covers the time period going from January 1997 to February 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -31.0 in November 2008; it achieved a maximum of 42.0 in May 2021; it had an average value of 14.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | -6.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | -4.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 1.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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