Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 6.0 in July 2026, compared to 13.0 in June.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the chart has a total of 353 data points. The time period covered by the series stretches from January 1997 to July 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 11.0; it recorded its maximum of 39.0 in February 2002; it reached its lowest level of -31.0 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 8.0 |
| 2026-06-30 | 13.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 6.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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