Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 3.0 in November 2025, compared to -12.0 in October 2025.
Sample. There are 345 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The series covers the time span extending from January 1997 to November 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 11.1; it achieved a maximum of 39.0 in February 2002; it reached its lowest level of -32.0 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | -8.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | -12.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 3.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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