Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Inventories of finished goods: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories of finished goods (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 9.0 in November 2025, compared to 5.0 in October.
Sample. In the monthly series shown in the graph, there are 345 observations in total. The series covers the time period extending from January 1997 to November 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some simple statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of -3.3; it reached its highest level of 15.0 in May 2015; it registered a minimum of -46.0 in August 2000.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 5.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 5.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 9.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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