Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 6.0 in January 2026, compared to 5.0 in December 2025.
Sample. In the monthly series presented in the graph, there are 347 observations overall. The series covers the time span going from January 1997 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -30.0 in October 2022; it recorded its highest level of 40.0 in February 2002; it had a mean value of 11.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | -1.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 5.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 6.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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