Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 3.0 in October 2026, compared to -2.0 in September.
Sample. This monthly series has a total of 354 data points. The series covers the span of time extending from May 1997 to October 2026.
History. Take a look at a few statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 10.9; it recorded its highest level of 40.0 in February 2002; it reached its minimum of -30.0 in October 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 2.00000 |
| 2026-09-30 | -2.00000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 3.00000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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