Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 1.0 in February 2026, versus -3.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 348 observations overall in the monthly series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the period going from January 1997 to February 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a maximum of 45.0 in May 2021; it reached a trough of -34.0 in November 2008; it had a mean value of 14.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | -5.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | -3.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 1.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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