Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 29.0 in April 2026, compared to 33.0 in March.
Sample. There are 350 observations in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time range extending from January 1997 to April 2026.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 29.1; it recorded a bottom of -20.0 in October 2022; it attained a maximum of 64.0 in February 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 43.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 33.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 29.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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