Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 17.0 in October 2026, compared to 25.0 in September 2026.
Sample. The monthly series displayed in the graph has 354 observations overall. The period covered by the series is from May 1997 to October 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 29.0; it reached a trough of -20.0 in October 2022; it reached a maximum of 64.0 in February 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 25.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 25.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 17.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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