Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 43.0 in February 2026, compared to 40.0 in January 2026.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are a total of 348 records. The series covers the time range stretching from January 1997 to February 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 29.1; it recorded a minimum of -20.0 in October 2022; it achieved a maximum of 64.0 in February 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 28.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 40.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 43.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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