Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 50.0 in May 2026, versus 45.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 351 observations in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The period covered by the series stretches from January 1997 to May 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 37.3; it reached a trough of 0.0 in April 2020; it recorded its maximum of 73.0 in December 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 40.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 45.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 50.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will wages increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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