Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 42.0 in August 2026, compared to 50.0 in July 2026.
Sample. There are 354 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the graph above. The series covers the time period stretching from January 1997 to August 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 37.3; it reached its lowest level of 0.0 in April 2020; it peaked at 73.0 in December 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 50.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 42.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will wages increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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