Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Vendor lead times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for vendor lead times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -1.0 in February 2026, compared to 5.0 in January 2026.
Sample. There are 348 records overall in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The time range covered by the series extends from January 1997 to February 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 5.3; it reached a trough of -31.0 in December 2022; it peaked at 46.0 in May 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 8.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 5.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | -1.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will vendor lead times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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