Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 19.0 in October 2026, versus 33.0 in September 2026.
Sample. There are 396 data points overall in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The period covered by the series is from November 1993 to October 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -16.0 in April 2025; it peaked at 57.0 in February 2002; it averaged 30.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 26.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 19.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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