Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 29.0 in February 2026, versus 34.0 in January.
Sample. There are 390 data points in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The series covers the period going from January 1993 to February 2026.
History. Have a look at a few summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index peaked at 57.0 in February 2002; it hit a trough of -18.0 in April 2025; it had a mean of 31.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 28.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 34.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 29.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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