Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 21.0 in April 2026, compared to 26.0 in March 2026.
Sample. This monthly time series has 392 observations in total. The period covered by the series goes from January 1993 to April 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -18.0 in April 2025; it reached its maximum of 57.0 in February 2002; it had an average value of 30.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 29.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 26.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 21.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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