Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 25.0 in November 2025, compared to 13.0 in October.
Sample. There are 387 data points in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time span going from January 1993 to November 2025.
History. Take a look at some statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index averaged 31.0; it reached a trough of -18.0 in April 2025; it hit a maximum of 57.0 in February 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-31 | 13.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 25.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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