Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 0.0 in September 2025, compared to 13.0 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 290 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the graph above. The span of time covered by the series extends from January 1993 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 30.8; it reached a trough of -18.0 in April 2025; it reached its highest level of 52.0 in February 1993.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 11.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 13.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |