Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 35.0 in May 2026, compared to 21.0 in April 2026.
Sample. The monthly time series displayed in the plot has a total of 393 data points. The time span covered by the series goes from January 1993 to May 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some simple statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -18.0 in April 2025; it hit a maximum of 57.0 in February 2002; it was equal on average to 31.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 26.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 21.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 35.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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