Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 34.0 in January 2026, compared to 28.0 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 389 records overall in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time span stretching from January 1993 to January 2026.
History. Here are some statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 31.0; it reached a minimum of -18.0 in April 2025; it recorded a maximum of 57.0 in February 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 25.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 28.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 34.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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