Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Inventories of finished goods: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories of finished goods (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 0.0 in January 2026, versus 2.0 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 347 data points overall in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time period extending from January 1997 to January 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of -3.3; it hit a maximum of 16.0 in August 2015; it recorded a minimum of -44.0 in August 2000.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 11.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 0.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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