Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 22.0 in October 2026, compared to 32.0 in September.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are a total of 354 records. The time span covered by the series goes from May 1997 to October 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some simple statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 29.1; it registered a minimum of -20.0 in April 2025; it recorded its highest level of 62.0 in February 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 32.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 32.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 22.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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