Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 8.0 in September 2025, compared to 9.0 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 259 data points overall in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time range going from January 1997 to September 2025.
History. Here are a few simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 28.7; it peaked at 50.0 in June 2002; it reached a minimum of -22.0 in April 2025.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 9.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 9.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 8.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |