Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Fifth District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 35.0 in February 2026, versus 36.0 in January 2026.
Sample. There are 348 observations overall in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The time period covered by the series stretches from January 1997 to February 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -22.0 in April 2025; it achieved a maximum of 62.0 in February 2002; it had a mean value of 29.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 27.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 36.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 35.0 |
Heads-up. A benefit of using our web site is that we give you well-crafted metadata. Check it below to better understand the properties of the indicators that you are exploring.
Not for investment purposes. Any financial data available on this web site are not not supposed to be used for investment purposes or as a basis for financial-decision making. Users should consult expert advice and do their own independent due diligence before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.