Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in the Fifth District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 32.0 in August 2026, compared to 31.0 in July 2026.
Sample. The monthly time series plotted above has 354 data points in total. The series covers the time period stretching from January 1997 to August 2026.
History. Here are some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 62.0 in February 2002; it hit a minimum of -20.0 in April 2025; it had an average value of 29.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 33.0 |
| 2026-07-31 | 31.0 |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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