Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 26.0 in April 2026, compared to 30.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 350 records overall in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time span extending from January 1997 to April 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -22.0 in April 2025; it reached a maximum of 62.0 in February 2002; it was equal on average to 29.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 35.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 30.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 26.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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