Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments was 23.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in January 2026, compared to 21.0 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 observations in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The time period covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 25.4; it hit a minimum of -34.0 in March 2020; it recorded its maximum of 55.0 in May 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 20.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 21.0 |
| 2026-01-01 | 23.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Shipments |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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