Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production stood at 24.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in February 2026, compared to 16.0 in January.
Sample. This monthly time series has a total of 296 observations. The series covers the time range stretching from July 2001 to February 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 25.6; it hit a minimum of -36.0 in March 2020; it achieved a maximum of 59.0 in September 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 13.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 16.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 24.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Production |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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