Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production stood at 37.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in October 2026, versus 36.0 in September 2026.
Sample. There are 304 records in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The time range covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to October 2026.
History. Check out a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index peaked at 59.0 in September 2021; it recorded a bottom of -36.0 in March 2020; it had a mean of 25.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 35.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.0000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 37.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Production |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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