Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production was 26.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in March 2026, versus 24.0 in February.
Sample. There are 297 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The time span covered by the series is from July 2001 to March 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -36.0 in March 2020; it hit a maximum of 59.0 in September 2021; it averaged 25.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 16.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 24.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 26.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Production |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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