Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: New orders for exports: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders for exports was -9.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in January 2026, compared to -4.0 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 observations overall in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The time range covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here are a few simple statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 26.0 in June 2008; it hit a minimum of -16.0 in March 2020; it was equal on average to 6.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | -6.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | -4.0 |
| 2026-01-01 | -9.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders for export increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: New orders for exports |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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