Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments was 16.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in January 2026, versus 9.0 in December 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has a total of 295 records. The series covers the period extending from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 25.3; it reached its highest level of 59.0 in May 2021; it hit a trough of -38.0 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 15.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 9.0 |
| 2026-01-01 | 16.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Shipments |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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