Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments stood at 30.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in February 2026, compared to 16.0 in January.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the graph has 296 records overall. The span of time covered by the series extends from July 2001 to February 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 59.0 in May 2021; it reached its minimum of -38.0 in March 2020; it had an average value of 25.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 9.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 16.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 30.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Shipments |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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