Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders was 14.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in February 2026, compared to 17.0 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly time series presented in the figure has 296 observations overall. The time period covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to February 2026.
History. Here are some summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 22.7; it recorded a bottom of -36.0 in March 2020; it hit a maximum of 52.0 in October 2003.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 12.0 |
| 2026-01-31 | 17.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | 14.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: New orders |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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