Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders was 17.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in January 2026, versus 12.0 in December 2025.
Sample. In the monthly series plotted above, there are 295 records in total. The span of time covered by the series goes from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Take a look at some statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -36.0 in March 2020; it reached its highest level of 52.0 in October 2003; it had a mean value of 22.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 13.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12.0 |
| 2026-01-01 | 17.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: New orders |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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