Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Kansas City Fed - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production was 20.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in January 2026, versus 22.0 in December 2025.
Sample. There are 295 observations overall in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The span of time covered by the series extends from July 2001 to January 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of some statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -35.0 in March 2020; it recorded its highest level of 56.0 in October 2003; it averaged 25.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 22.0 |
| 2025-12-31 | 22.0 |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Reproduction allowed subject to conditions |
| Other information | FS correspondence: Production |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
Series in the same data set
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