Average Fed Mfg Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments was 32.6 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, compared to 34.5 in August.
Sample. This monthly time series has 268 observations overall. The series covers the time range stretching from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Have a look at some statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded a bottom of -2.7 in November 2008; it achieved a maximum of 55.6 in January 2017; it averaged 30.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 25.2400 |
| 2026-08-31 | 34.4800 |
| 2026-09-30 | 32.5800 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 5 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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