Average Fed Mfg Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production stood at 34.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, compared to 33.2 in August 2026.
Sample. There are 267 observations overall in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The period covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of some summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -25.3 in March 2020; it reached its maximum of 56.5 in February 2006; it had an average value of 30.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 28.9000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.2000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 34.0500 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 2 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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