Average Fed Mfg Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders stood at 33.7 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, compared to 34.7 in August 2026.
Sample. There are 268 data points in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The period covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Take a look at a few simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 53.5 in January 2017; it recorded a minimum of -11.2 in October 2022; it had a mean value of 29.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 23.6200 |
| 2026-08-31 | 34.6600 |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.7400 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 5 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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