Average Fed Mfg Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders was 38.0 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, versus 42.7 in August.
Sample. This monthly time series has a total of 268 observations. The span of time covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index peaked at 49.7 in November 2004; it reached its lowest level of -7.6 in October 2022; it had an average value of 29.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 31.3000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 42.7000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 38.0200 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 5 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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