Average Fed Mfg Survey: Inventories of raw materials: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories of raw materials was 2.5 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, versus 6.0 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the chart has a total of 268 records. The time span covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 0.4; it reached its highest level of 19.0 in June 2018; it reached a trough of -25.0 in February 2009.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 4.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 6.00000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 2.50000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories of raw materials increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 2 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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