Average Fed Mfg Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments was 38.6 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, versus 41.1 in August.
Sample. This monthly series has 268 data points in total. The time period covered by the series extends from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Here are some statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 31.1; it registered a minimum of -2.8 in March 2020; it peaked at 55.2 in June 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 34.0400 |
| 2026-08-31 | 41.0800 |
| 2026-09-30 | 38.5600 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 5 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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