Average Fed Mfg Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - FSR - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Average Fed Mfg Survey (FetchSeries Research)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on an average of regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production was 38.1 (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) in September 2026, versus 38.0 in August.
Sample. There are 268 records overall in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The period covered by the series is from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 58.5 in September 2004; it reached a trough of -27.3 in March 2020; it had a mean of 30.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 36.3000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 37.9500 |
| 2026-09-30 | 38.1500 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Rescaling | None |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | FetchSeries Research calculations on Federal Reserve data |
| Source type | Data research lab |
| Data licence | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) + FetchSeries disclaimers |
| Other information | Arithmetic average across 2 regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys |
| FSR temporal aggregation code | LM01 |
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