Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Business Leaders Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of service firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 36.6 in October 2026, versus 34.1 in September 2026.
Sample. There are 266 records in the monthly series displayed in the figure above. The time period covered by the series is from September 2004 to October 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 42.4; it recorded its highest level of 68.0 in April 2022; it reached a trough of -20.9 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 44.2000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 34.1000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 36.6000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Over the next six months do you expect wages paid to increase or decrease? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.
Current conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |
Future conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |