Business Leaders Survey: Business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Business Leaders Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about service firms in the Second Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -5.1 in October 2026, versus 5.0 in September.
Sample. There are 266 observations in the monthly time series shown in the plot above. The time range covered by the series extends from September 2004 to October 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -52.0 in December 2008; it reached its maximum of 67.8 in May 2021; it was equal on average to 22.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 9.30000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 5.00000 |
| 2026-10-31 | -5.10000 |
Hint. An advantage of our web site is that we publish well-crafted metadata. Find them below to better understand the properties of the time series that you use in your work.
Not for investment purposes. Any data found on this web site are not supposed to be used for investment purposes or any other financial decision. Users should ask for professional advice and do their own independent due diligence before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Over the next six months do you expect business activity at this company to increase or decrease? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.
Current conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |
Future conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |