Business Leaders Survey: Employment: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Business Leaders Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about service firms in the Second Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for employment (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 9.5 in October 2026, versus 5.0 in September.
Sample. There are 266 observations in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The time span covered by the series extends from September 2004 to October 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 18.2; it reached its highest level of 51.8 in May 2021; it reached a minimum of -42.9 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 9.30000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 5.00000 |
| 2026-10-31 | 9.50000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Over the next six months do you expect employment at this company to increase or decrease? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.
Current conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |
Future conditions SA
| Series Name | Observations | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Leaders Survey: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly | 266 | 2004-09-30 | 2026-10-31 |