Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Outlook uncertainty: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of service-sector firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 21.6 in September 2026, versus 13.1 in August 2026.
Sample. This monthly time series has 105 data points in total. The series covers the time range going from January 2018 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 14.1; it recorded its highest level of 43.2 in April 2020; it reached its minimum of -10.4 in April 2021.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 12.9000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 13.1000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 21.6000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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