Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Outlook uncertainty: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 21.4 in September 2026, compared to 12.9 in August.
Sample. There are 105 data points in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The period covered by the series extends from January 2018 to September 2026.
History. Check out some simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 43.8 in April 2020; it recorded a bottom of -10.0 in April 2021; it had an average value of 14.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 12.7000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 12.9000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 21.4000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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