Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Regional general business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about nonmanufacturing firms based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for regional general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 2.0 in September 2026, compared to -6.3 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 187 observations in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The series covers the period going from March 2011 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -44.4 in April 2020; it reached its highest level of 73.8 in July 2021; it averaged 29.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 15.7000 |
| 2026-08-31 | -6.30000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 2.00000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will regional general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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