Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Firm-level general business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of nonmanufacturing firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for firm-level general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 20.3 in September 2026, versus 12.4 in August.
Sample. There are 187 records overall in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The span of time covered by the series stretches from March 2011 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 79.1 in June 2021; it reached a minimum of -26.2 in April 2020; it was equal on average to 39.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 41.9000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 12.4000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 20.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will firm-level general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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