Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Firm-level general business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of nonmanufacturing firms surveyed by the Fed, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for firm-level general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 18.9 in September 2026, compared to 8.8 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 187 observations in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The time range covered by the series goes from March 2011 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 39.9; it hit a maximum of 81.5 in March 2012; it reached its lowest level of -18.8 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 38.5000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.80000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 18.9000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will firm-level general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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